January 30, 2006
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This is a tribute to Bob.
I am near tears, frustrated by my chances of success. I fear they are nil. As you may have surmised, by my spotty attendance here, I have been either over at bobsadviceforstocks, rereading his notes, again, or I have been watching the market on TV. Mostly what I did over the weekend was get ready to pick my first stock.
I copied a full page of notes, off his Podcast, listing click by click where I was to go, at the four websites he uses to research his stock picks. I spent Saturday going through them all, figuring out how to read everything. Then, all of yesterday, I practiced looking up stocks and rating them, according to the various statistics.
It was just like looking for a man. Nothing was good enough. I got all the way through this one stock, which wasn’t in a sector I feel good about but whose numbers looked great, only to discover from some other source, the mention of bankruptcy. Nowhere had I seen evidence of that. The only thing I can figure is that they are being sued and that their possible fines haven’t been addressed yet.
I have a new-found respect for Bob’s ability to pick a stock because, to me, it looks impossible. The sectors which are in favor, like banks or software, slip in and out of popularity so fast you really have to be on top of where the economy’s at. And these quarterlies; if guidance is off, sometimes it doesn’t seem to matter but other times it does. There’s no hard and fast rule. You have to get a feel for the mood, constantly take the temperature of the market. And it seems like they feed off each other, spreading rumors. First there’s plenty of oil. Prices drop. Then with the mere suggestion that there might not be enough, prices hike. Exxon, after robbing us all year, reported bigger earnings than a company has ever made: 36.13 BILLION last year.
Bob’s been doing this for 37 years so maybe I should give myself a little more time. I think, once I familiarize myself with the names of these obscure companies, I won’t waste so much time researching the wrong ones. The only good thing about those hours I spent with the wrong stock was just like the three years of dating I did. You get a better idea of what you’re looking for, where to find it, and how to recognize it. Now if I can just cram 37 years into the next month.
Comments (22)
Lord, How do we know if Enron numbers are not inflated?
I like your analogy of looking for stocks is like looking for a man it is isn’t it, smile happy hunting, Judi
I was just having a similar convo w/my sister. When you immerse yourself in something new, the learning curve can be2-5 years to be an expert. Give yourself some time, if you can afford it. If not, keep learning while punting.
In time you’ll learn how to eliminate the bad ones a lot quicker. I use a stock screener to narrow my choices down to start and then I have a couple things I check right away (like excessive stock options). Keep working and good luck!
making mistakes is something every novice in any field makes. it’s hard to move into a new area and develop the expertise needed to succeed. but you can do… if anyone can, you can!
This is pretty much how I felt when I traded Commodities. The learning curve is huge, sometimes eating your profits as you are dialing to sell or buy. I feel frustrated when learning something new, until I get the hang of the terminology and my feet don’t feel like I’m in Ice Water!!! RYC: you really don’t like warm weather do you? That house is so awesome, and even in summer it’s cool inside, due to the way they put all the high ceilings and the wrap porches on it..You’d love to see it though, so much personality much like viewing a Gallery of Fine Arts..marilyn
I don’t know if one can ever know enough . . . best of luck.
Holy cow. Well at least you are on your way and you have a plan. I like the analogy because that is the only way I’d get it! I’m sending all good luck your way. It has got ot be difficult choosing, especially after the recent investment. Sometimes a new eye is better than an experienced one at catching the odd potentials in some areas. I have no idea if this would pertain to stocks, but it might. Good luck to you.
And thank you for your kindness as always. She passed peacefully today. All is well and calm now.
Kraft – It’s hard to understand all the logic of why a stock goes up when the earnings news is bad. My guess is that investors are excited about the additional cost cutting/possibility of better earnings as a result. My experience with companies that are doing a large restructure is that it takes a long time to see the benefit and that the company must have siginificant problems if it needs to be restructured. Kraft has a lot of great brands though so I think they will be fine in the long run. Aside from that though, they seem overvalued right now (their PE ratio is over 20). Do you own any or are you just thinking about buying some?
ryc: i’ve had my number of clashes- not that i started them. they seem to be part of life here.
are you ahead or behind now?
i saw your xanga pic from buyit’s site. what kind of dog is that? i wanna say a brittany spaniel, but i’m probably wrong. nonetheless, he/she’s adorable!!!!
I think it was Leonidas who blogged recently about Enron and the way big corporations can simply lie about their earnings to inflate stock prices. GRRRR. I’m glad you’re learning about this, though. There’s always fluke and fancy, but knowing more about the markets will always help. Good luck.
It’s a wild ride, Pru! Your foray into stocks… I’m not commenting as much, but I always read you. You go, just go woman! xo
Prudy,
You are so kind. I have learned to relax a little. This is sort of a Buddhist moment for me. Letting the stocks come to me and not chasing after stocks (sort of like women I guess).
It is essential to have a wide range of stocks. Build up about 12 in a portfolio at least. When one misbehaves, drops whatever % you set, go ahead and sell it. Don’t even worry. Don’t look back. Kind of like getting rid a bad relationship
. There are more fish in the water.
Don’t buy anything until one of your stocks has moved higher to a sell point. If you need to set up a new portfolio account to do this. Don’t worry about sectors. I don’t. I don’t try to think at all. I try to observe, to listen, to feel the pulse of the market. I will move into sectors because they will come to me. Honestly. They will show up in the top % gainers list when I need them.
Success will give you confidence. And your failures should give you pause. That’s part of the strategy. Thanks so much for your many kind words. There isn’t anything magic in what I do. Although sometimes I do think I am lucky
.
Bob
this sounds a lot like being addicted to a drug….if its all you’re now focusing on…
I think your last paragraph says it. You are learning what you want, how to find it, how to deal with it, how to live with your decisions and choices. You can’t learn it all in 1 year. But you seem to love it, and I’ve always found that following my passion leads to good things, although not always in the way I foresaw it happening. Keep working it.
http://www.phpbbforfree.com/forums/eminemsrevengea-about234.html might explain WHY Sirius is in a slump…but NOW is the time to buy like a crackhead who just hit the lottery
http://www.breitbart.com/news/2006/02/01/D8FGFE6G1.html
The shiite is hitting the fan for all the quick money makers
No particular comments about today’s entry, just hello. . .and take care of yourself.
I have no knowledge of the field but am gaining respect reading your posts….RYC I understand your intent and appreciate your thought. Actually it seems the more serious a condition the more potent such ideas and practices are. At some point medicine as commonly practiced here can beome mechanistic at best and limited….I will folloew the medical protocol prescribed for Joseph ,but I will also employ any alternative approaches that are doable and that won’t pose risk which this clearly doesn’t. It may empower him .Thank you for this offering…and I will share with him and see if he wants to give it a try….. Thanks !! Mia Lucia
Don’t give up! I would be scared to even consider doing that so I’m admiring your nerve.
Pru…Do this right now, okay? Honestly. I know your head is full of numbers and symbols and little green +’s and little red -’s, but just for the sake of, well, humor me a second, okay? I promise I’ll explain.
You have to clear your head (yes, just for a second)… I want you to picture an apple in your hand. I want you to look at your apple very closely. Make it so real, you can smell it. Take note of everything about it…color, texture, smell, what it would taste like if you were to bite it.
I know you want to get to the point of this exercise, and there is one, really! I’ll add a blurb to my post, just for you…but you’ve got to do the apple thingy first.
Really. Think of all the words to describe your apple, whatever they may be. Only when you’re done, you can go see what I’m going to tell you.
Kinda cool, huh?
I love you…GFW